The KISS Method of Bankroll Management
KISS is a common acronym that stands for Keep It Simple Stupid. Just like regular investing, gambling has a straight forward recipe for success. Instead of “buy low, sell high” it is “pick more winners than losers”. That is pretty much it.
Now, you can increase your returns by increasing the complexity of your process. For example, in investing you may start looking at different financial ratios, or diversifying with a given portfolio theory. In gambling, you can optimize your bet sizes with The Kelly Criterion, or you could do a SWOT analysis of the given fighters in a bout. In the end though, you are still hoping to pick more winners than losers.
The KISS method is the basic method that every beginning gambler should start with, and it goes something like this:
1. Look at every bout on a card.
2. Pick who you think will win.
3. Pick by what method they win.
4. Pick which round (unless the method is via decision) they win.
5. Risk the same amount (between .5% and 3% of your bankroll) on each fight.
BAM! That is it.
Notice that no where in those instructions does it mention reading lines. The price for betting on a fighter is unimportant in this method, especially since the amount risked is the same for every bout. You just want to pick who is going to win, nothing more. The basic concept relies on quantity (a whole fight card) over quality, and that a few upsets will equal out or surpass the losses from larger favorites losing.
Before you really delves into MMA wagering, you should sit down and do this with at least 10 cards. At a minimum, you should show a success rate higher than 53%. A success rate above 60% would be divine.
Once you’ve determined that you can consistently pick winners better than chance (plus the vig from the sportsbooks), you can choose to delve deeper into the various gambling methods.
Conversely, you can just keep using the KISS system and never get more complicated than picking winners. If your success rate is high enough, you’ll churn out a profit, and it won’t even take any more effort than looking through a fight card and making a few quick choices. When you combine this with a little Line Shopping, a good gambler can make a decent profit over the long run.